人人富足的美麗新世界

如果我們認真檢視現正發展中的科學和工程技術，每個人都會發現這個世界正經歷前所未有的重大市場變化。科技進步之快，意味著在接下來的 20 年內，地球上（不論在已開發或開發中國家）的男女老少，基本需求都將得到滿足。人人富足的理想已經觸手可及，而且全球生活水準都將提高。

When you examine all the hard facts, the science and engineering which are now in the pipeline, the only feasible conclusion one can reach is the world is on the cusp of major marketplace changes. Exponential increases in technology mean within the next two decades, the world (both developed and developing nations) will have the capacity to meet and exceed the basic needs of every man, woman and child on the planet. Abundance for all is literally within our grasp and a rising global living standard will result.

雖然這個樂觀的說法，可能和每天新聞報導的種種負面消息相抵觸，但不可否認的是，有愈來愈多的領域出現驚人的成果――例如人工智慧、機器人研發、電腦運算、寬頻網路、數位生產、奈米材料、合成生物學等等。隨著這些和其他科技愈來愈成熟，應用愈來愈廣泛，再加上這些科技成果相互結合及擴大效用，世上最難解的問題勢必得到解答。

While this may run contrary to the gloom and doom which fills the daily news cycle, the undeniable fact is exponential gains are now being made in a wide and growing number of fields – artificial intelligence, robotics, computing, broadband networks, digital manufacturing, nanomaterials and synthetic biology to name just a few. As these and other technologies mature and get applied, it is inevitable society’s most unsolvable problems will be addressed, especially when all of these advances amplify and build on each other.

所謂富足，用 3 層金字塔來描述最為恰當：金字塔的最底層是人類的基本需求，再往上一層是能夠得到成長的工具，最頂層則是享受健康自由的生活，並能貢獻社會。當地球上的每個人在這 3 個層次的需求都能得到滿足，富足的世界就會實現。

Abundance is best described as a three-tiered pyramid where first basic needs are met, then the person has access to the tools of growth and finally they live healthy and free lives where they can contribute to society. Abundance will be realized when everyone on the planet has unfettered access to all three tiers.

那麼要達到這些目標有沒有合理的時間表呢？在 25 年內，也就是在2035 年前，全球富足的目標就能達到。這些在 2012 年看來或許「野心太大且過於勉強」的目標，在接下來 10 年內便會有足夠的動力來促成改變，因為世界各地都會產生驚人且重大的轉變。

So what is a reasonable time-frame for reaching these targets? Abundance is achievable within the next twenty-five years – by 2035. As “ambitious and far-fetched” as that may seem circa 2012, the simple dynamic is within the next decade significant and noticeable exponential changes will occur worldwide.

關鍵思惟

「有史以來，我們的能力第一次開始能夠追上夢想。人類現在正進入劇烈轉變的時代，科技能夠大大提升地球上所有男女老少的基本生活水準。以往只保留給少數富人的商品和服務，不出一個世代，任何有需要的人也都能夠得到。人人富足的理想已經觸手可及。」――彼得．戴曼迪斯與史帝芬．寇樂

Key Thoughts

“For the first time in history, our capabilities have begun to catch up to our ambitions. Humanity is now entering a period of radical transformation in which technology has the potential to significantly raise the basic standards of living for every man, woman, and child on the planet. Within a generation, we will be able to provide goods and services, once reserved for the wealthy few, to any and all who need them. Or desire them. Abundance for all is actually within our grasp.”– Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler

【完整內容請見《大師輕鬆讀》No.438】